We congratulate President-Elect Barack Obama on a stunning win, and take a look at what he may expect in the economy in the next year.
Even before he's taken office, the American public is expecting great things from our new President-Elect. Mostly, this is an eagerness for positive solutions and the lack of confidence or trust in the outgoing President George W. Bush.
Mr. Obama will be facing the most difficult economy since the 1930's, with continuing negative financial news on a daily basis. Unlike Franklin Roosevelt's time though, that news is instantaneous and our economy can be impacted by news outside our own shores. Still further, the companies today that make up the backbone of our financial services sector are international, so something going wrong in Asia or Europe can bring down an American institution in days.
We are concerned that Mr. Obama's new administration will be hit hard with a series of negative figures in the first month of his Presidency. Actually, in the few days prior to his taking office, we anticipate seriously bad news in regard to jobs and earnings, with daily reports of business closings, many of them locally, not nationally reported.
Mr. Obama has expressed, wisely, the need for economic stimulus and soon, however, such legislation will be hard to come-by with the Bush presidency still in its final months.
Such a stimulus package should be focused largely on job creation in the short term, with a secondary tier intended for long-term projects like infrastructure.
In the shorter term, as we proposed previously, investment in small to mid-sized business would be the most helpful thing because it would create jobs throughout the nation, not merely in major job centers like big cities.
Fundamental to business at the higher end is the roots of business at the smallest end, where small companies make or use the products and services of larger concerns. Creating jobs in small business would trickle upwards to create more jobs in the larger businesses.
When people on Main Street have jobs, they're going to buy cars, pay bills, buy houses and stabilize communities around the nation. That increases, in the very short term, the consumer confidence levels and consumer spending.
Politically, it establishes the balanced view of recovery, and not one favorable to big business and Wall Street alone, as the outgoing Administration is presently viewed. Let's face it, investing in small business gives nothing to Lou Dobbs to complain about. He might even praise it.
While some might call it socialism and nationalization, it's simply capitalism, where government becomes the incubator for existing business growth and new startups. Once a company is underway and stable, it can repay its investment with interest and government makes a profit - if that's not capitalism at its best, what is?
The new Administration is going to face a myriad of troubling times and Americans should be patient. Everything from restaurants to retailers, manufacturers to service providers in the next two quarters will be suffering and we'll see many shuttering their doors, many of them well known, even if only locally.
What worked financially for generations doesn't work now because our economy is morphing into a next generation. Not just of the people in it, but in its scope and complexities. We now face not merely a global economy, but one with new interdependencies and practicalities. We face entirely unexpected dynamics, like the need for global financial policing and investigatory treaties, strict limitations of investment products so that they do not outweigh the total value of the national economy. The world cannot afford another Iceland, where the entire country became a hedge-fund.
Care must also be taken not to over-spend, lest the new Administration devalue the Dollar to such a point that our economy resembles that of the Weimar Republic or present-day Zimbabwe.
Banks, though now global, must be brought under tight controls to keep banking operations exclusively within each nation's operation. If a bank division fails in one country, it shouldn't take out the rest of the company in other nations, and holding companies must be held accountable for the operations if their subsidiaries in new, innovative ways.
Companies must be prohibited from sheltering their operations offshore, particularly the holding companies. Not merely for tax purposes, but because such actions prevent economically sound nations from taking the right actions to prevent a crisis.
These are merely a few of the many issues facing Mr. Obama's new team and no matter whom he selects, we'll wish them the very best to accomplish these and other goals. We pledge our support to the nation's economic recovery. Hopefully our readers will do the same.